MACRO

September Fed rate hike fears look overblown as market-implied probability stands at 58%, not 90%

Aug 31, 2026 · MACRO

Market-implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike sit at about 58%, well below the roughly 90% that some commentary had flagged. The measure was downgraded after a hawkish speech by Kevin Warsh on Friday, and market observers now play down expectations of a near-term tightening. The rate path is a macro factor that shapes risk appetite and liquidity for the broad cryptocurrency market, so shifts in policy expectations feed directly into digital asset prices.

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